Market Cycle Tracker - Where Are We in the S&P 500 Cycle?

Percentile Rank

vs. history since 1980

Historical Average

Long-term mean PE

Expected 10yr Return

Based on current valuation

Last Update

Updates daily

Valuation Ranges & Expected Returns

Based on institutional research from JP Morgan Guide to the Markets and historical S&P 500 data

PE Range Market Assessment Historical Frequency Expected 10yr Annual Return

< 16 Attractive 20% of time 8-12%

16-20 Fair Value 45% of time 5-8%

20-25 Expensive 25% of time 3-5%

> 25 Very Expensive 10% of time 0-3%

Market Cycle Analysis (1980-2024)

Top chart shows PE ratios over time with valuation zones. Bottom chart shows distribution of PE ratios and current market positioning. Data includes major market events and cycles since 1980.

Understanding Market Valuations

What is PE Ratio?

The Price-to-Earnings ratio compares the S&P 500's current price to its earnings per share. A higher PE suggests investors are paying more for each dollar of earnings.

Why It Matters

Historical data shows a strong inverse relationship between starting PE ratios and subsequent 10-year returns. High valuations typically lead to lower future returns.

Important Caveats

PE ratios can remain elevated or depressed for extended periods. This is not a timing tool but rather a framework for setting return expectations.